March 29, 2010
So yesterday I started out my sessions trying to play like I did before with a bit of mixed results though definitely better than it had been, but of course this was only one day and about 6.5 hours.
The main thing was I realized for the last 300,000 hands I've been playing around a 11.5/11 style, whereas before I was 14/14 I looked and mainly the difference was just from not stealing as often, somehow I had convinced myself my steals weren't working as much and neither were my flop cbets... when they don't work 4 or 5 times in a row, which is like 4 or 5 times in about 20 seconds playing 24tables it feels like you're spewing chips, but I filtered out when I stole and found that even though it wasn't working quite as often as before, it was still a HUGE money maker, I looked at Saturdays terrible session in particular, my ev for Saturday was something like -$380 yet I lost over $1,000. So I ran bad and played bad, but even with this bad run, when stealing from the CO and Button I still made $1.79 per attempt, so almost 90bb/100 or so at 1/2. So then I multiplied my old steal % by the amount of times I could have stolen, and it worked out that during my sessions on Saturday I could have stolen around 180 more times or so, so roughly $325 worth of value if my winrate held up that I just let slip away. That's quite a bit of money just given away...
Years ago when I did the 1/2 limit grind I started out making about 100 - 200/day for the first week, then slowly started losing more and more and more and I kept playing tighter and tighter thinking that was why I was losing cause they were so loose i needed to play tighter or something. Well I guess I was slipping into that funk again.
I played again yesterday, after 2 sessions my EV was +300ish and then played one last 2 hour session and my ev was -380. So after 6 hours -80ev. Not great, but it was at a 15/14.5 style and honestly I think the last session was just DOMINATED by coolers, I felt I took a TON of them, and usually on most sessions my W$atSD is right around 50% . Like 52% is decent, 50% is usually a little bad and anything below is usually when I'm getting coolered a lot.
Well just to give an example, I actually won like $50 during my lat session where my ev was -$380 So I ran great right? Well even with THAT my W$atSD was LESS than 40% that's one of my lowest of all time AND I ran 10 buyins above ev!!
So I'm really feeling pretty encouraged by the original results I really think I was just somehow focusing more on when people would resteal or raise my flop cbet several times in a row instead of looking at the overall results and seeing my cbets were only working about 1.5% less and my steals only about 1% less overall, not NEARLY enough to stop doing them so often imo.
Obviously I don't want to get premature about this, poker is insanely swingy and maybe I was playing against a lot of weaker players since it was Sunday, and also the regs probably see my steal % as lower on their HUD than what I was doing yesterday so overtime that will start to change and they should start fighting back more often too, but for now I'm at least cautiously encouraged about the results and will hopefully keep them going in the right direction even more.
260,000 VPPs and climbing
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